SIU Edwardsville

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	287.0
Current RPI:	287
Expected SOS:	245
Current SOS:	245
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	5-14
Expected Conf Record:	5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	262
Expected OOC SOS:	293

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	287.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for SIU Edwardsville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	105-74	L	0%
11-15	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	69-94	L	0%
11-18	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	A	76-80	W	100%
11-22	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	67-69	L	0%
11-25	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	103-66	L	0%
11-29	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	86-59	L	0%
12-3	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	86-71	L	0%
12-6	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	81-82	W	100%
12-10	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	76-75	W	100%
12-19	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	88-76	W	100%
12-22	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	A	70-52	L	0%
12-28	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	78-58	L	0%
12-30	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	87-63	L	0%
1-4	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	82-85	W	100%
1-6	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	65-70	W	100%
1-11	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	61-76	L	0%
1-13	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	82-79	W	100%
1-18	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	74-86	L	0%
1-20	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	69-70	L	0%
1-25	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	85-57	L	0%
1-27	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	83-72	L	0%
2-1	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	67-68	L	0%
2-3	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	75-67	W	100%
2-8	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	74-78	L	0%
2-10	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	66-75	L	0%
2-15	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	69-70	W	100%
2-17	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	79-74	L	0%
2-22	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	82-86	L	0%
2-24	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	68-56	L	0%
2-28	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	N	60-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

SIU Edwardsville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

SIU Edwardsville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against SIU Edwardsville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	26.30	26.30	31.76	31.76	-9.59	-9.59
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.39	4.39	29.63	29.63	-1.79	-1.79
Austin Peay	OVC	4.23	4.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	4.22	4.22	81.48	81.48	2.66	2.66
Belmont	OVC	4.19	4.19	70.97	70.97	1.76	1.76
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.18	4.18	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.14	4.14	46.15	46.15	-0.32	-0.32
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.12	4.12	37.04	37.04	-1.07	-1.07
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.10	4.10	25.93	25.93	-1.97	-1.97
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.62	2.62	64.52	64.52	0.76	0.76
Morehead St.	OVC	2.53	2.53	23.08	23.08	-1.36	-1.36
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.51	2.51	32.14	32.14	-0.90	-0.90
Western Illinois	Sum	1.87	1.87	30.43	30.43	-0.73	-0.73
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.84	1.84	58.06	58.06	0.30	0.30
IUPUI	Horz	1.81	1.81	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Purdue	B10	1.81	1.81	81.82	81.82	1.15	1.15
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.77	1.77	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	1.75	1.75	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Valparaiso	MVC	1.74	1.74	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Stetson	ASun	1.72	1.72	29.63	29.63	-0.70	-0.70
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	1.69	1.69	3.45	3.45	-1.57	-1.57
Creighton	BE	1.67	1.67	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Lipscomb	ASun	0.36	0.36	68.97	68.97	0.14	0.14
Bradley	MVC	0.28	0.28	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Green Bay	Horz	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.67	76.67	0.09	0.09
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.15	0.15	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Denver	Sum	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01